Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 on Nov. 7. Here is what happened, what it means for the CFP and when the next rankings come out on Nov. 10.
Notre Dame beat No. 1 Miami 31-24 on Saturday night, Nov. 7, in South Bend, and as of Nov. 8, 2026 the Irish look like a near lock for the College Football Playoff. The loss is Miami's first of the season. Both teams are now 8-1, according to Notre Dame's athletics site.
The next set of CFP rankings arrives Tuesday, Nov. 10. Here is what happened, what changes in the bracket picture and what to watch before then.
What happened in Notre Dame vs. Miami?
Notre Dame led 17-3 at halftime and 24-3 in the third quarter, then held on after Miami scored three times, per Notre Dame's game recap. The Irish say it was the program's 10th win over the nation's top-ranked team. They also beat Miami 31-30 on Oct. 15, 1988, so the score has a familiar look.
Quarterback CJ Carr went 29-of-40 for 319 yards and three touchdowns, according to the school. Micah Gilbert caught nine passes for 98 yards and two scores. Nolan James Jr. ran for a one-yard touchdown early in the fourth quarter after Carr hit him for a 36-yard gain on fourth down, per the recap.
The finish was tense. Notre Dame missed a 53-yard field goal with the lead at seven. Miami then ran 41 yards on a catch-and-run to the Irish 22-yard line, but on fourth down Luke Talich broke up a pass to Elija Lofton in the end zone. The Irish then ran out most of the clock.
Miami's side of it is more complicated. Hurricanes On SI called it a game with a "controversial call" on that last play, and AP described Lofton's near-catch as the latest entry in the rivalry's lore. We have not seen a league or official statement on the play, so we are not calling it a bad call. Miami was also without receiver Malachi Toney, who has an ankle injury, according to Pro Football Network, and Notre Dame was missing linebacker Drayk Bowen and two defensive backs.
What does the win mean for the College Football Playoff?
A lot. Pro Football Network's playoff meter put Notre Dame's chances at 96.2% after the game, up from 83.3% before it. That is a model's estimate, not a committee decision, but it matches the schedule. The Irish have Boston College and SMU at home and a finish at Syracuse, and none of the three is expected to be ranked, PFN noted.
The committee had Notre Dame 11th in its first rankings on Nov. 3, which our earlier story covered. Under the new 12-team format, Notre Dame gets an automatic spot if it finishes in the top 12. Committee chair Hunter Yurachek said the Irish lacked a signature win at that point. They have one now. PFN also noted it was Notre Dame's first win over a top-16 team in two years.
Miami drops, but not out. Hurricanes On SI estimated Miami lands between No. 6 and No. 8, with a small chance of falling outside the top 10. The Hurricanes play Duke next at noon, according to that report.
Who else moved in Week 10?
It was a rough Saturday for the top 10. Yahoo Sports reported that Georgia beat Ole Miss 42-7, making the Bulldogs the likely new No. 1. Utah beat BYU, and Alabama won at LSU. Kentucky lost to Tennessee. Ohio State fell at home to Oregon, its third loss and second in a row, and Yahoo called the Buckeyes the biggest potential loser in the new rankings.
When do the new rankings come out, and what should you watch?
The AP poll and the Coaches Poll come out Sunday, Nov. 8, at about 2 p.m. and 1 p.m. ET, according to Yahoo Sports. The second CFP rankings are Tuesday, Nov. 10, on ESPN. Yahoo lists 8 p.m. ET. Our Nov. 3 story said about 9 p.m. ET, so check the ESPN schedule before you plan around it.
Here is our take. The number to watch is not Notre Dame's spot, which should climb. It is where the committee puts Miami relative to Alabama and Notre Dame, and whether a one-loss Hurricanes team still gets a first-round bye. That is the part nobody can predict from Saturday's score, and we would not trust anyone who says they can.
Ohio State is the other name to watch. The Buckeyes were No. 12 and the first team out in the Nov. 3 rankings, and they now have three losses. How the committee treats that is the second-biggest question on Tuesday.
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Picture credit: Notre Dame Athletics
