Warner Bros. projects up to $30 million for Clayface, but A24's Elizabeth Holmes documentary and Laika's Wildwood could crowd the weekend.
Clayface arrives in theaters this weekend with a modest goal: give DC Studios a win after a rough summer. According to The Hollywood Reporter, Warner Bros. is projecting a $25 million to $30 million domestic opening from more than 3,400 North American theaters, plus another $20 million to $25 million overseas.
That's not a huge number, and the studio isn't pretending otherwise. The body-horror film, directed by James Watkins, carries a reported $44 million budget. Tom Rhys Harries plays Matt Hagen, an actor whose face is disfigured and who turns to a scientist, played by Naomi Ackie, for help.
Why the budget matters more than the opening
The comparison everyone will draw is Supergirl. THR reports that film cost $170 million, opened to $37.1 million domestically and finished with $126 million worldwide. A bigger weekend on paper, then, but a far bigger hole to climb out of.
Clayface starts with less to prove. It also has better notices: the report puts it at 75 percent on Rotten Tomatoes, against 52 percent for Supergirl. THR's own critic, Frank Scheck, called it "a big swing that definitely pays off." Remember that is one reviewer's verdict, quoted by the trade, not ours.
This is the third film in the slate run by DC Studios heads James Gunn and Peter Safran. Superman opened that slate strongly last year.
A24's documentary won't leave quietly
The more interesting story may be the film in second place. A24's You Can See Everything, the Elizabeth Holmes documentary from Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim, opened in just 855 theaters and still took about $15 million, finishing behind Paramount and Legendary's Street Fighter, according to THR.
This weekend it expands to 2,600 theaters, with a projected gross of at least $18 million. That would leave it within reach of Clayface, which makes the top spot a real contest. A documentary about the Theranos founder's life before prison being in that conversation is the sort of result nobody would have predicted a month ago. Our read: if Clayface lands at the low end of its range, the headline could easily be about A24.
The rest of the weekend
Four other releases are sharing the calendar, per THR:
- Laika's stop-motion feature Wildwood, directed by Travis Knight, opens in 2,926 theaters with a 100 percent Rotten Tomatoes score.
- Klara and the Sun, from Sony and director Taika Waititi, stars Jenna Ortega and Amy Adams.
- Ali G: Who Iz I?, Sacha Baron Cohen's comedy from Amazon MGM Studios, gets one week in theaters before it streams on Prime Video.
- Wicker, Black Bear's Sundance title with Olivia Colman and Alexander Skarsgård, also opens.
Those are all projections, issued before a single ticket has been scanned. Studio estimates can miss in either direction, and final numbers arrive on Sunday.
Picture credit: DC Studios / Warner Bros.
